We trusted them

We must change our path, but not as the alarmists would have us believe.

Now we must change direction, but following reason, not fear.

About thirty years ago we first heard reports that the world was warming. The scientific papers noted that levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were the highest recorded in the last 8 million years (or some large number, depending on the study). The language made it seem that CO2 caused the warming, but it seldom said so directly. At first.

We trusted the scientists and as more and more of these papers appeared we slowly came to accept that the planet was warming because of our CO2 emissions. Continue Reading →

Denial at the death of El Nino

The three major conditions of ENSO explained by NOAA.

An informative model of surface temperatures, winds, areas of rising air, and the thermocline (blue surface) in the tropical Pacific during El Niño, normal, and La Niña conditions. The three major states of ENSO are nothing to do with climate, but are tacked on to whatever is the weather. – RT
      Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project Office, Dr. Michael J. McPhaden, Director.

The denial is consistent with all that warmist shrieking at the El Nino’s peak. The GWPF Observatory reports: Despite Denial, Global Temperatures Are Dropping Fast. All global temperature data sets (you can see a few of the graphs at that GWPF Observatory link) confirm that global temperature has fallen rapidly in the last few months as the recent El Nino ended. Dr David Whitehouse comments: Continue Reading →

Trump and the facts of life

I am pessimistic that Trump will make good on all his promises to change the climate change policies of the US. He won’t be allowed to. He’s already making noises like “I’m examining [the Paris treaty] closely.” He’s surrounded by people who know how things work and they’re now teaching him the facts of life. Shame, but there you go. We’ll have to effect change the hard, old-fashioned way of struggle and slog, work and toil.

New comments editor

I’ve just installed a slick new editor for writing comments that gives easy access to formatting, blockquotes, links and some other things. Should make life a bit easier without interfering with the delayed editing—or anything else. Let me know of any questions or problems. Hope you like it.

Cheers,

Richard T.

UPDATE 11:45 am NZDT Friday 4th November

I’ve deactivated the new editor for a while. I’ve now seen what RC is talking about and I haven’t found a solution yet. I’ll keep looking. Thanks for all the feedback! – RT

Battle for our grasslands and livestock

This comprehensive essay by our good friend Viv Forbes in Australia doesn’t apply to us, since we have no grass-covered continent and our Green movement has developed in different directions. But it may have a lesson to teach us, as there’s evidence of gung-ho Green radicalism in New Zealand that should caution us against complacency. Perhaps not grasslands, but how would you like our native forests, fisheries, mountains, rivers, lakes and coastlines, piece by piece, being taken out of bounds, not only for productive development but for access?

In truth, the process is under way, with the Green Party agitating against exploitation within our enormous National Parks and Greenpeace interfering with lawful access to the seabed for mining. In addition we now have Maoris claiming the right to control river and lake waters, which under centuries-old British law belong to the Crown. Let’s hope these ancient rights will not on any pretext be tampered with or given to any portion of our population, or it’ll be a dark day for the whole world. Viv paints a superb picture of how things were and how things are today—and how life is distorted by environmental activists out of touch with the environment’s needs. His account warns us to keep our situation awareness alive. I strongly recommend you click through to the entire article in pdf and relish the whole of it. – Richard Treadgold

Continue Reading →

Great Barrier Reef undead

Great Barrier Reef

UNESCO: “The Great Barrier Reef is not in danger.” (2015)

In a welcome change, the Guardian takes a non-alarmist stance on a climate change topic. It was persuaded by marine scientists to disagree with an obituary for the Great Barrier Reef published earlier this month. I’ve never before known the Guardian to spare our feelings or understate the growing perils of climate change. Continue Reading →

Plausible deniability

The orthodox climate view demeans sceptics as deniers. They refuse to acknowledge that sceptical questions are valid. If they took a moment to examine them, they would find numerous points of doubt about the argument that human activities are about to ruin the planet. One such point is the claim that “it must be our greenhouse gas emissions because nothing else explains it.” Continue Reading →

Listen to us: we control the weather – listen

A conference is under way in Auckland. The Climate Change and Business Conference has brought together the great and the good from New Zealand and overseas. Yesterday and today, these fine people are lending their personal dignity to the completely senseless notion that we control the weather.

Propaganda doesn’t come in any more blatant form than this, when an idea of no value is propagated by eminent speakers. But is anyone listening? Continue Reading →

NIWA scientists agree de Freitas climate paper streets ahead?

It’s six years since NIWA published their Report on the Review of NIWA’s ‘Seven-Station’ Temperature Series (pdf, 8.5 MB), the latest version of the national temperature record. It’s six years, too, since NIWA promised the people of New Zealand (in Parliament) they would publish the methodology in that report in a peer-reviewed journal. But they haven’t done so—maybe they aren’t too pleased with it.

Last year, three scientists associated with the NZ Climate Science Coalition published a peer-reviewed paper concluding the New Zealand temperature rise over the last hundred years was only 0.28°C, much lower than the last NIWA effort, which claimed it was 0.91°C. Though I notice just now when checking the NIWA website they’re claiming 0.92°C.

Kenneth Richard has just posted an article on the de Freitas et al. paper at NoTricksZone – h/t Maggy Wassilieff.  Continue Reading →

Renwick distorts evidence

Auckland mayoral candidate Vic Crone

During an interview a few days ago, Auckland mayoral candidate Vic Crone would not say if she believed the earth was warming due to man-made pollution, saying only: “Gosh, that’s a very contentious debate.”

Dr James Renwick, a professor of physical geography at Victoria University of Wellington, has slammed Crone’s statement. “The climate is changing and it is due to human activity and that is very clear from all sorts of lines of evidence,” he said. “To say that it’s very contentious suggests a real lack of understanding of the area.” The evidence showed that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming, Renwick said. “To try and say that we’re not sure is very backward thinking.” [emphasis added]

But that’s just not the case.  Continue Reading →

Latest ‘sick oceans’ report absurd

Global warming making oceans ‘sick’, scientists warn

Global warming is making the oceans sicker than ever before, spreading disease among animals and humans and threatening food security across the planet, a major scientific report said on Monday.

The report lists several consequences of warming they claim are “absolutely massive.” The scientists say we are “making the oceans sick,” “drastically altering the rhythm of life” and “changing the seasons in the ocean.” Continue Reading →

Paris agreement endangers climate

The symbol of endless labout

Symbol of arduous labour

Eternal useless labour was the lot of King Sysephus, whom the gods made to roll a boulder each day to the top of a mountain and watch as it rolled down again. This was a punishment, not a reward. It’s a Greek tale among many at the heart of Western civilisation, instructive and memorable to countless generations of people raised to be thoughtful, and a heritage to value. But the climate hoax contains eternal labour for us all and we just don’t see it. Continue Reading →

Ethics breach by Renwick and Naish – shock Royal Society probe

NZ Climate Science Coalition announcement

The Royal Society of New Zealand has confirmed the commencement in accordance with its rules of a process to consider a complaint by several of its members that two Victoria University academics, Professors James Renwick and Tim Naish, have breached the society’s Code of Ethics in their public programme of lectures throughout the country entitled “Ten Things You Didn’t Know About Climate Change”. Continue Reading →

Kiwis threaten climate consensus with judicial review

Citizen group unafraid of so-called consensus

A group of pragmatic kiwis have threatened to test the Christchurch City Council’s belief in the IPCC dogma in court. In effect, they are daring the council to let a judge examine the consensus position that the sea level is about to soar dramatically higher and faster than it has for thousands of years. Continue Reading →

Govt Ignores Science in Rush to Ratify Paris Climate Accord

The NZ Climate Science Coalition just issued a press release.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

New Zealand’s rush to sign the Paris Climate Change Accord ignores science and will damage the economy, according to the chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, Hon Barry Brill, himself a former Parliamentary Under-Secretary to the Minister of Energy in a National Government. Continue Reading →

NZ about to ratify Paris agreement – will they ask our opinion?

Paula Bennett says the Government intends to concrete the Paris agreement into place by the end of the year.

She will “within weeks” announce terms of reference and the members of an expert group that will help implement our transition to lower carbon emissions. They hope our trading friends will be mightily pleased by our righteous eagerness to save the planet. Or so they imply. Continue Reading →

Moving the blog

Trying hard not to lose a call

Trying hard not to lose a call

When I started this blog over ten years ago I decided to host it temporarily on a subdomain of wordshine, just to see how it worked out. Well, it seems to be working fine so I’ve bought a permanent home for it. There could be glitches before we’re settled in, so pray patience, friends, while we make the move. When I say ‘we’ I refer to the nice boffin who hosts my domains in Hamilton.

The new domain is named simply climateconversation.org.nz, and I’ve owned it for several years (mustn’t hurry these things). Don’t change your links just yet, though; I’ll let you know if and when you have to. I want you to know we’re doing all we can to avoid losing any of you even for a moment.

Thanks for your patience.

Warmists more frantic

The more one studies James Renwick’s desperate letter to the Herald the more frantic appear his attempts to malign by any means, fair or foul, the increasingly confident climate sceptics who question his global warming thesis. For example, he says of Chris de Freitas:

He claims that hysteria is being stirred up against those raising “serious questions” about climate change. What are these serious questions? Can he give an example of the hysteria?

Continue Reading →

DAGW hypothesis fails on every measure

The story so far: the scientifically and climatically inept Dr Jarrod Gilbert pontificated hysterically that it should be a crime merely to discuss ambiguities in the theory of dangerous anthropogenic global warming (DAGW), taking the view that only “those who deny climate change” cause doubt. He says reasonable doubt doesn’t exist, which of course is flagrant nonsense—just as no sceptics deny that climate change exists. Continue Reading →

Renwick weak in climate quarrel

Dr James Renwick criticises Dr Chris de Freitas for keeping a cool head and saying there’s no need to worry about normal climate change. James says:

I am puzzled that de Freitas can review the evidence, the melting ice sheets, rising seas, warming oceans and atmosphere, and see nothing to worry about.

He claims four points of evidence. Let’s have a look at them. Continue Reading →

We are intolerant of anyone who does not value inclusion

Because we champion diversity and inclusion

And we’re fully prepared to fire you if we don’t get it.

Another white man has his job threatened merely by expressing an opinion on gender issues that differs from some orthodoxy, the explanation some ambiguous double-speak about diversity and inclusion. You couldn’t make this up. Oh, wait: it’s all made up. Continue Reading →

Pontificating piffle on climate

UPDATE – see below

Dr Jarrod Gilbert, a sociologist at the University of Canterbury, advises us to trample on the right to free speech by making it a crime to “deny climate change”, wants climate sceptics to stop “ignoring best evidence” and “turning against experts” and gives us all the juvenile middle finger by saying amusingly “the term climate sceptic is now interchangeable with the term mindless fool.”

Continue Reading →

Gavin Schmidt confirms model excursions

Gavin Schmidt asks at RealClimate: “How should one make graphics that appropriately compare models and observations?” and goes on to reconstruct John Christy’s updated comparison between climate models and satellite temperature measurements. The reconstruction was cited here by Simon in response to Gary Kerkin’s reference to Christy’s graph ( – h/t Richard Cumming, Gary Kerkin and Simon for references). Continue Reading →

Renwick, Naish invoke malignant ‘consensus’, cite scandalous papers

Desperation palpable

See UPDATE, below

Professors James Renwick and Tim Naish are sounding global warming warnings around the country. We have received a copy of their presentation, called Ten by Ten: Climate Change – Ten things you didn’t know about climate change.

This academic presentation is filled with errors, though it’s funded by the Victoria University of Wellington and the Royal Society—which means your taxes, at least in part. Continue Reading →

Gareth, who has nothing

I ought to rejoice at the latest Hot Topic post, The Lost Art of Conversation … or a challenge foregone, because, one, it’s all about me and, two, Gareth finally relents on the ban he slapped on me years ago (no longer permitted to comment at his blog—native trolls too sensitive). He allows me to comment on this post as long as I don’t “deliberately misrepresent matters of fact.” Continue Reading →

Brexit polling as it happens

Early indications are the UK will leave the EU. But at 3:35 pm NZST it’s very close at 10,539,289 to leave and 10,066,155 to stay (difference 473,134). It could go either way.

UPDATE 4:15 pm NZST

Leave now 14,899,282 votes; Stay 13,905,623; difference: 993,659.

UPDATE 4:48 pm NZST

Leave now 16,285,959 votes; stay 15,154,925; difference: 1,131,034.

UPDATE 5:18 pm NZST

Leave now 16,992,701 votes; stay 15,812,943; difference: 1,179,758.
Leave must now win, and we await the final result.

 

THEY’RE OUT!!

Hurrah!

Obama’s climate hypocrisy

Donald Trump has reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for US president. There are now global concerns that his campaign could succeed. President Barack Obama said foreign leaders were unsure how seriously to take his pronouncements. He said Trump displays either ignorance of world affairs or a cavalier attitude or an interest in getting tweets and headlines. He suggested more useful proposals would thoughtfully address what’s required to keep the US safe and prosperous and “to keep the world on an even keel.” Continue Reading →

Umpteen degrees of blind panic

A lot of exaggeration and misdirection – take a look

Herald - Nine degrees

NZ Herald two days ago:

Burning the rest of the world’s untapped fossil fuel resources – an equivalent five trillion tonnes of carbon emissions – would push up the average global temperature by between 6.4C and 9.5C.

Those are the big figures behind a major new study published today in the journal Nature Climate Change—and they’re much more serious than had previously been anticipated.

The study, led by the University of Victoria in Canada, further estimated that this level of extra emissions would elevate Arctic temperatures between 14.7C and 19.5C.

In the absence of efforts to mitigate climate change, cumulative carbon emissions would likely exceed two trillion tonnes of carbon before the end of this century.

Etc., alarming, blah, blah, scary, blah. Continue Reading →

Sea level study distorted by journalists

Official complaint regarding inaccuracy

(Sent to the Herald today)

The Herald yesterday carried an article on sea level rise in the Solomon Islands. Villages have been abandoned and whole islands lost beneath the waves. Climate change is forcing people from their homes. Catastrophic sea level rise is already on us and we’re causing it. Continue Reading →

Antarctic and Greenland ice — cold heart of deception

A reader remarked on our discussion of dangerous sea level rise, asking:

Where is all that ice that is dissapearing [sic] from glaciers and land based ice sheets going to end up and why if the decline of glaciers and land based ice sheets is accelerating will sea level rise not accelerate with it?

I asked for a reference Continue Reading →

Post on no posts

Around October or December last year, when we took possession of our house in Te Puke, a hot water leak began in the downstairs kitchen, soaking the wall, cabinets and floor unseen. In early January the leak was discovered and stopped. The insurance company settled our claim for thousands less than we hoped and we quickly agreed that our plans for renovation had to be brought forward. Continue Reading →

Climate deceit turns leaders witless

This piece is from a note I took nearly a year ago, but the message remains fresh and compelling. – RT

Donna Laframboise picks up on Steven Goddard’s observation on the solemn pronouncement of the G7 industrial leaders last year. They agreed to “phase out fossil fuel use” by the end of the century. Continue Reading →

McIntyre on models and obs

Prof Willem de Lange recommended Steve McIntyre’s analysis of Dr Christy’s iconic graph and Richard C (NZ) asked me to repost it, so here it is. I think it’s another example of patient, objective endeavour overcoming zealotry. Please let me know if you see it differently and let me know if you agree, but see something I missed. It’s an immense pleasure to put this before you. – RT

Gavin Schmidt and Reference Period “Trickery”

— by Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit – Apr 19, 2016

Newspapers

This is an adopted article.

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere. My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent discussion here by Judy Curry). Schmidt made the sort of offensive allegations that he makes far too often: Continue Reading →

Morgan: ‘We are cheats’

So Gareth’s in high dudgeon again. But this is not worth his ire: what he describes is nothing on the cheating Chinese.

Companies there have been caught out making mind-boggling bags of money. In a bold-as-brass scam under the Clean Development Mechanism, the UN has been paying them to destroy a refrigerant gas that has a very strong greenhouse effect. Continue Reading →

Sea rising dangerously — yeah, nah*

Rising but not dangerously

Some say our arrogant, relentless use of coal, oil and gas dangerously heats the atmosphere, which in turn heats the ocean and raises sea levels.

The worry-warts were whinging about it in the New Zealand Parliament the other day, demanding we outlaw building near the beach because coastal houses will fall into the sea in 2050. Continue Reading →

Carbon delusions and limited models

The relentless war on carbon is justified by the false assumption that global temperature is controlled by human production of two carbon-bearing “Greenhouse Gases”. The scary forecasts of runaway heating are based on complex and circumscribed, carbon-centric, computerised Global Circulation Models built for the UN IPCC. These models omit many significant climate factors and rely heavily on dodgy temperature records and unproven assumptions about two natural trace gases in the atmosphere. Continue Reading →

Letters to the Editor

Poverty and the Environment

quill pen

To the Editor
Climate Conversation

28th March 2016

Desperately poor people focus on feeding their family and have no spare energy to support secondary concerns such as the environment.

Destitute societies also see large families as free labour and old-age insurance. Thus poverty inevitably produces growing populations and environmental degradation. Continue Reading →